Jump in Google searches for “Donald Trump” mirrors closing gap between candidates

Google Trends analysis shows that Donald Trump has been dominating and dominates Google Searches by a large margin. This is a good predictor for public interest and can lead to future changes in intentions to vote.

In the last 90 days, the volume of searches on Google for “Donald Trump” was DOUBLE of that for “Hillary Clinton.” Furthermore, during the days of the Republican National Convention the numbers exploded, Donald Trump dominating by a factor of almost FOUR.

Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton Google searches
Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton Google searches

Abroad, Trump dominates in most countries…

Trump vs. Hillary Clinton Google Searches by Country
Trump vs. Hillary Clinton Google Searches by Country

In the US, Trump and Clinton divisions are measured in similar terms although both candidates have their own areas of strength, Hillary Clinton dominating the coasts and Trump the hinterland.

 

 

Also, for the first time a national poll indicates a nominal Trump lead (although within margin of error, which means a virtual tie) over Hillary Clinton.

This change and other factors made Nate Silver up his estimates for Trump, being more accepting of the possibility that Trump might get more action over the summer and a possible shot at victory. A very short while ago (July 12), his prediction for a Hillary Clinton win was 77%. Now it is only 60%. A dramatic fall of almost 20 percentage points.

 

 

Sorin Adam Matei

Sorin Adam Matei – Professor of Communication at Purdue University – studies the relationship between information technology and social groups. He published papers and articles in Journal of Communication, Communication Research, Information Society, and Foreign Policy. He is the author or co-editor of several books. The most recent is Structural differentation in social media. He also co-edited Ethical Reasoning in Big Data,Transparency in social media and Roles, Trust, and Reputation in Social Media Knowledge Markets: Theory and Methods (Computational Social Sciences) , all three the product of the NSF funded KredibleNet project. Dr. Matei’s teaching portfolio includes online interaction, and online community analytics and development classes. His teaching makes use of a number of software platforms he has codeveloped, such as Visible Effort . Dr. Matei is also known for his media work. He is a former BBC World Service journalist whose contributions have been published in Esquire and several leading Romanian newspapers. In Romania, he is known for his books Boierii Mintii (The Mind Boyars), Idolii forului (Idols of the forum), and Idei de schimb (Spare ideas).

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