It is for visions like some of those found in this article (see excerpt below) that “I Think” deserves a spot under the sun. The article, syndicated by Yahoo!, and originally published by Extreme Tech, makes in its first prediction (we want portable multimedia systems) two mistakes. It makes the visible buzz of today into the glamour of tomorrow and it ignores that what we expect from the techologies of tomorrow are better human experiences, not gargantuan gonflations of current engineering pipe dreams.
Why is the idea that we really want portable entertainment naive? Why shouldn’t we want walkmen with pictures? Because this is a typical linear extrapolation of current technologies. The idea is that if the IPOD was so succesful when it delivered only sound, it should be 1000 times more so if it delivered pictures. (10^100w=1p, where w=words and p=pictures). This ignores the fact that, as Norman predicted a long time ago, multipurpose devices should die so that information appliances and focused experiences could live. We love IPODS and their capactity to deliver a specific service on the go– access to music and spoken content–only in so far as this kind of service and content is amenable to the on-the-go experience. We listen to portable devices because we can also do something else. We will never be able to watch a video while doing somethig else (or if we wil try, we will learn the hard way that this is not a good idea–think about driving your car and watching a video). In a word, we want portable background noise producers or media transport and delivery devices that allow us to do something else at the same time, not multimedia devices that can distract us while trying to do something else.
On the other hand, the article has a few interesting pointers for the coming social revolution in domesticating communication technologies. The continuous and intense socialization of communication technology is, indeed, a trend to watch, although the emphasis on the user need or desire to “get creative” with the content is somewhat exagerated. Personally, I hate to collate, edit and ship out home movies to my friends and family. If there were a method to have the film edited while I shoot it, so that I could just send it out at the end, I would be the happiest person in the world. (And mind you, I teach multimedia production classes!). The thing is that I, as countless other millions, do not have the time needed for post-production. I am not retired yet. Spending a whole day on editing a 2 min home movie is a great drain on my time resources.
A possible way to make the post-production process a little bit less onerous would be to teach the users how to plan their shots in conjunction with some built in software that would make shooting “automatic.” (I know, it’s easier said that done, but this is not a reason for not trying). A kind of embedded MuVee that would edit your stuff, while you shoot it…
> Tech Trends to Watch in 2006 – Yahoo! News
With the growing number of technology-infused products and services tipping into the mainstream, even hesitant tech adopters are starting to take advantage of new ways to acquire, share and enjoy entertainment.
>Which items will go from conversation pieces of the digerati to must-haves for the mass market? Sizing up some of the notable entertainment technology trends of 2005 gives one perspective on the emerging status quo and what are likely the breakout technologies in 2006.