Could hurricane Irene surge flood lower Manhattan, Midtown East, Upper East Side, Battery Park, the shipyard, and Ground Zero (World Trade Center) areas? (map, kmz)

UPDATE: NYC Evacuation and Hurricane Irene Possible Landfall Map

NOAA predicts that even if it remains an intensity 1 or 2, hurricane Irene might flood a good part of lower Manhattan, including Battery Park and Ground Zero (World Trade Center). The later, which is at this point a virtual hole in the ground, might collect the water that would reach as far as Rector Park.

Knickerbocker Village and Lower East Side are also at risk, as are Midtown East and Upper East Side, which seem to be potentially the worst affected.

Midtown Tunnel, Lincoln Tunnel, Holland Tunnel, as well as part of the subway network could be affected by the surge as well.

The red line represents the predicted limit of likely Manhattan floding according to NOAA data. The boundary is probabilistic, meaning that it can turn into reality only if a number of calculated premises are met, including and especially if Irene hits Manhattan frontally. Thus, it is not a true “forecast”. The data is provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration via http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/storm_surge/NOTICE.txt

Other details at http://www.imaphurricane.info/

use the + / – signs to zoom in and out. click and drag to pan around the map. click earth to see map in 3d, including buildings.

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• New York Region Prepares for Hurricane Irene (nytimes.com)
• New York Prepares For Hurricane Irene (news.sky.com)
• Hurricane Irene threatens to plunge US east coast into major power blackout (guardian.co.uk)
• Mayor Michael Bloomberg Orders Unprecedented Mandatory Evacuation Ahead Of ‘Very Dangerous’ Hurricane Irene (newyork.cbslocal.com)
• New York buildings face flood threat from Irene (business.financialpost.com)
• NYC subways, trains to shut down for Irene (cbsnews.com)