Was hurricane Irene over hyped? Compare actual and forecast tracking paths to see how accurate was the NOAA National Hurricane Center forecast (map, kmz)
Irene might’ve not destroyed the Manhattan skyscrapers with over 100 mph winds and 10 foot high tide surges, as some Godzilla-meets-King Kong extreme weather scenario aficionados dreamed, but it did do a lot of damage in the coastal areas of many seabord states and in the inland regions of New England. The most recent damage estimate is 7bn dollars due to flood alone.
It should be said, however, that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Hurricane Center (NOAA / NHC) forecast of the storm path, which was always within 10 miles of the actual landfall point, was a real life saver. Personally I was truly amazed at the precision with which NOAA forecasts predicted that Irene will turn into a tropical storms just before hitting Coney Island.
As can be seen from this map, although the Irene actual path was closer to New York than expected, it was quite accurate.
Legend (click each icon for detail):
- Red icons, actual position at specific time
- White icon, predicted position at specific time
- Blue line, predicted path
- Blue shade, predicted cone of impact
Map is interactive. Click, zoom, and pan for details.
Related articles about Irene coverage and forecast from Zemanta
- ‘Gold medal forecast’ of Irene’s path saved lives (msnbc.msn.com)
- Irene forecasts on track; not up to speed on wind (sfgate.com)
- Irene Forecasters Missed Intensity While Getting Path Right (businessweek.com)
- Hurricane Lost Steam as Experts Misjudged Structure and Next Move (nytimes.com)
