Current Affairs

Crimean Parliament votes joining Russian federation, referendum in 10 days might significantly escalate crisis

Russia Protest
Russia Protest (Photo credit: FreedomHouse)

 While the news flow focuses on what the US or EU leaders did or did not do to prevent the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the crisis suddenly deepened with the Crimean Parliament’s announcement that this autonomous province of Ukraine will join the Russian Federation. A referendum is planned for March 16. If it gets organized, it might trigger violent clashes, even if the results are not validated by Ukraine or Russia. A civil war in Ukraine is quite likely and Russia would take pleasure on seeing it explode into full fledged conflict. This will give it the opportunity to intervene as a peacemaker, following the Georgian scenario. In a sign of further escalation, Russian sailors scuttled an old anti-submarine ship in the middle of the navigation channel blocking the Myrnyi Ukrainian naval base. Daily Mail provides a deep and rich account of the latest events.

English: Russian Federation, Defense Ministry....
English: Russian Federation, Defense Ministry. Emblem of the General Staff of the Armed Forces. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Crimea’s parliament voted to join Russia on Thursday and its Moscow-backed government set a referendum within 10 days on the decision in a dramatic escalation of the crisis over the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula.

The sudden acceleration of moves to formally bring Crimea, which has an ethnic Russian majority and has effectively been seized by Russian forces, under Moscow’s rule came as European Union leaders gathered for an emergency summit to seek ways to pressure Russia to back down and accept mediation.

The Crimean parliament voted unanimously “to enter into the Russian Federation with the rights of a subject of the Russian Federation.” Its vice premier said a referendum on the status would take place on March 16.

via Crimean Parliament Votes to Join Russia, Sets Referendum Date – NBC News.com.

 

Location of ship sunk in the harbor channel

Sorin Adam Matei

Assistant Vice President for Partnerships in Strategic Defense Innnovation and Professor of Communication at Purdue University, Director of the FORCES initiative leads research teams that study the relationship between technological and social systems using big data, simulation, and mapping approaches. He published papers and articles in Journal of Communication, Communication Research, Information Society, National Interest, and Foreign Policy. He is the author or co-editor of several books. The most recent is Structural differentation in social media. He also co-edited Ethical Reasoning in Big Data,Transparency in social media and Roles, Trust, and Reputation in Social Media Knowledge Markets: Theory and Methods (Computational Social Sciences) , all three the product of the NSF funded KredibleNet project. Dr. Matei's teaching portfolio includes technology and strategy, online interaction, and digital media analytics classes. A former BBC World Service journalist, his contributions have been published in Esquire and several leading Romanian newspapers. In Romania, he is known for his books Boierii Mintii (The Mind Boyars), Idolii forului (Idols of the forum), and Idei de schimb (Spare ideas).

3 thoughts on “Crimean Parliament votes joining Russian federation, referendum in 10 days might significantly escalate crisis

  • Luis A. F. F. von Wetzler

    The problem is not Ukraine is Russia. Russia is a country, which for centuries the only ones who were able to rule her, were strong men or women, weak leaderships in Russia had always failed. I will not write an essay about Russian history, but this is too simple. Just remember who were since XV Century the most successful sovereigns. Ivan IV who killed his son and murdered thousands of Russians, put fire the city of Novogorod, but at the same time he was successful in waging wars against the traditional enemies of Moscow. He was the second Tsar after Ivan III. We have to remember as well, Peter I the Great (Pyotr Bielikij) an extraordinary statesman, who was very successful in reshaping the Russian Empire, in my opinion after the election of the Romanov dynasty (1613) he was the true organizer of the Empire, even the first one to use the title of Imperator following Roman and Byzantine traditions. Russia was the Third Rome. He was a successful militar leader, he defeated King Charles of Sweden, the Poles and most of the traditional Russian foes. He built up Saint Petersburg after his voyage through Europe, his aim was to open a “window to Western Europe”. But he was extremely cruel like Ivan IV, he didn’t care to execute his own son and heir to the Throne, as Ivan IV did. But he will be remember always for his postive legacy, the man who left a country such as Russia as one of the big European powers. Ekaterina Bielikaya many years later, born Sophie Princess of Anhalt Zebst was going to continue his work, she was again a very cruel woman, who murdered her own husband Peter III (Romanov Holstein Gottorp), but she extended the boundaries of the Russian Empire and reached the Black Sea and the Caucasus. Catherine the Great was a little bit bipolar, on one hand she loved the great thinkers of her time, like Voltaire and Rousseau, on the other hand she was a tremendous Autocrat without mercy or pity, she ordered the assassination as well of Ivan VI the true Tsar, but she modernised Russia as Peter did it before her. Her successor and son Paul I was irrelevant and was murdered by the Orlov, Potemkin and count Pahlen, who was in charge of Russia in times of Napoleon and his wars was Alexander I a good Tsar but without enough character. Nevertheless he was very successful after the fall of Napoleon in the reorganisation of the entire Europe with Prince Metternich, the Austrian Chancellor, Lord Castlereagh, and Prince Charles Maurice the Talleyrand. This Europe lasted until the Great War from 1914 to 1918. Nicholas I and his son Alexander II were great emperors and autocrats as well. Nicholas smashed the very aristocratic and liberal revolution of December 1825, but later on, he signed alliances with Austria and Prussia. We have to remember that under Nicholas I Russia started an expansion towards the Caucasus, they were able to conquer almost the entire Caucasus signing alliances with Chechens and other tribes of the region. Georgia and Armenia were part of the Russian Empire longer before Nicholas I. The Tsar was a rival for the British Empire in Central Asia, he tried to reach even India through his good relations with the Shah of Persia or through Afghanistan, but the Russian troops of General Count Vorontzov Dashkov were just able to assure Central Asia, the current former republics in the region, but the adventure to India was forgotten. Russia was very close to Prussia and the Austrian Empire during that period. What was a disaster to the Tsar was the war in Crimea, his aims to reach Constantinople failed. When Nicholas I passed away, was Alexander II his son, who took the lead, he wanted a new Empire he worked with just one aim, modernise Russia and give Russia a Constitution, with the support of two men, General Count Loriss Melikov and Prince Michel Gortschakov his bright chancellor. First he put an end to serfdom, but the reform was uncomplete, only Pyotr Arkadevich Stolpyin was going to give land to the peasants, the kulaks. Inbetween 1878 and 1881 he worked hard in a draft of a new constitution for the Russian Empire, both the most reactionary elements of the Empire and the Narodnaia Volya were against a constitution, quite obvious their goals were different. The Tsarevich Alexander Alexandrovich was very upset with his father, and he blamed Princess Ekaterina Dolgoruky, the Emperor’s mistress for these reforms. When the Empress Maria Alexandrovna died, in the very same day, Alexander II married “Katja”, they have three children already. On March 12, 1881 the Tsar returned from Krasnoe Selo and five terrorists were waiting him near the Winter Palace, he was murdered and the entire project of a Constitution was forgotten by his succesor Tsar Alexander III, an extremely reactionary Emperor, but with a strong will, he smashed all the terrorist organizations and killed dozens of their members, including Vladimir Ulyanov eldest brother. His son Nicholas II the last Emperor was a good man a wonderful father but with no character at all to rule Russia as an autocrat. When were disturbs in Petersburg after the defeat in the war with Japan, a general ordered to open fire to a group of petitioners, including father Gapon. The Tsar didn’t know what was happening in Peter, he was at the Alexander Palace in Tsarskoe Selo, nonetheless he was blamed for the massacre. Stolypin was the only statesman that had Russia at that time, but he was murdered in Kiev in 1911, and most of his reforms were not carried out. The War was a disaster for the monarchy, the protection of Serbia was a tremendous mistake, carried out by the reactionaries allied with French free masons and neo jacobines such as Georges Clemenceau. Serbia was an outcasted state since the regicide of the pro Austria King Alexander Obrenovic and Queen Draga on May 11, 1903, most of the European countries refused to have ambassadors or ministers in Belgrade. The consequence of the war was dramatic, the end of the European balance, the end of four Empires, Russia, Germany, Austria Hungary and the Ottoman one. The raise of the Bolcheviks and later on another totalitarian regime, the Nazis. Both were responsible for WWII and both regimes committed horrendous genocides in Europe, more than 120 million people perished in hands of Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. So in my opinion is very difficult to have a constitutional Russia, with more freedoms, checks and balances, an independent Judiciary, unless Russians change for good, and give up to their admiration to strong dictators and tyrants as they still have in our time. In their entire history from Ivan IV to Stalin and the bolcheviks, the most successful were the worst tyrants. But I trust and hope that the dreams of Alexander II and other Russians will become true and a new Russia will rise as a lesser autocratic and totalitarian state as still is Russia in our time. Sometime in the future, with more education and a change of mentality Russians will choose Democracy, not a copy of the American one, but a true Russian democracy, which will work well for all the people of a country, which gave to the world so much culture since Catherine II.

    Reply
  • I completely agree, Russia is the problem, indeed, but the war will unfortunately be in Ukraine, It is will be Bosnia on steroids, with Russia playing the role of Serbia. As for the kind of democracy Russian will embrace, if they will ever embrace democracy, that can be of any kind as long as Russia renounces its imperial nationalistic dreams of dominating half of Europe.

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